Predicting a World Cup champion
By Martin Rogers, Yahoo! Sports Thursday, Jun 10, 2010
Follow Martin Rogers on Twitter at @mrogersyahoo
JOHANNESBURG, South Africa – As an expectant nation awaits the start of the World Cup, the most pressing question – especially for newcomers to soccer – is pretty simple.
Can the United States win the World Cup?
There is also a simple answer: Of course, it can’t. But then again, the U.S. wasn’t supposed to reach the Confederations Cup final last year in South Africa by beating European champion and world No. 1 Spain and wasn’t supposed to give Brazil an almighty scare in the final.
Realistically, though, the performance and progression of Bob Bradley’s team must be kept in context. While failure to progress from the group stage would be a massive disappointment, plenty of teams with far more established credentials will push for a spot in the latter rounds.
The U.S. should get out of Group C even if it struggles in its opening game against England on Saturday. Slovenia and Algeria are both tough committed sides, but each is an opponent the Americans should defeat if they want to be taken seriously on the international stage.
Beyond that, it all gets a bit tricky. If the U.S. finishes second in its group, then a matchup with powerhouse Germany likely would beckon. The organized Germans would be a huge favorite. However, Bradley’s men showed that – on their day – they can compete with even the very best teams the tournament has to offer.
Whether that day – that perfect synchronicity of positive factors clicking into place – arrives over the next few weeks, only time will tell.
I’m backing the U.S. to get through to the last 16 and put up a fight against Germany before heading home with its pride intact. From that point on, the big boys will take over, although the soccer world would benefit greatly from a thriving African side.
Injuries and tough groups stand in the way for the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Cameroon has the best shot among the African teams to go far, and I think Samuel Eto’o and company can stun defending champion Italy in the second round before bowing out gracefully.
But for the eventual champion, I simply can’t look beyond Spain. The current Spanish lineup is even better than the one that surged to victory at the 2008 European Championships and, despite its brilliance, is actually still underrated.
The midfield of Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta will provide the cornerstone for victory and Fernando Torres will provide the scoring firepower needed for the Spanish to raise the World Cup.
Group stage predictions
I’m not expecting many surprises in the group stage – not among the big guns anyways. South Africa and Australia can pull off shockers by reaching the last 16 – while Didier Drogba’s injury will ruin Ivory Coast’s hopes.
(Top two teams in each group advance)
• Group A – 1. France, 2. South Africa, 3. Mexico, 4. Uruguay
• Group B – 1. Argentina, 2. Greece, 3. Nigeria, 4. South Korea
• Group C – 1. England, 2. United States, 3. Slovenia, 4. Algeria
• Group D – 1. Germany, 2. Australia, 3. Serbia, 4. Ghana
• Group E – 1. Netherlands, 2. Cameroon, 3. Denmark, 4. Japan
• Group F – 1. Italy, 2. Paraguay, 3. Slovakia, 4. New Zealand
• Group G – 1. Brazil, 2. Portugal, 3. Ivory Coast, 4. North Korea
• Group H – 1. Spain, 2. Chile, 3. Switzerland, 4. Honduras
Round of 16 predictions
Most of the hopefuls bow out at this juncture, leaving a powerhouse quarterfinal lineup to fight it out for the trophy. Cameroon ends Italy’s defense of its title with another strong performance to keep the African interest alive.
• France defeats Greece
• Argentina defeats South Africa
• England defeats Australia
• Germany defeats United States
• Netherlands defeats Paraguay
• Cameroon defeats Italy
• Brazil defeats Chile
• Spain defeats Portugal
Quarterfinal predictions
Lionel Messi’s magnificence won’t be enough to see off the structured Germans, while England keeps rolling and Brazil outlasts Netherlands in one of the games of the tournament. Cameroon’s brave run finally comes to an end, but only after giving Spain a fright.
• England defeats France
• Germany defeats Argentina
• Brazil defeats Netherlands
• Spain defeats Cameroon
Semifinal predictions
It takes the brilliance of Dunga’s Brazil to expose the limitations of England’s defense, while Spain trumps Germany in a rugged repeat of the Euro 2008 final.
• Brazil defeats England
• Spain defeats Germany
Final prediction
Spain’s momentum continues as the two top sides on the planet scrap it out for the trophy at Soccer City. The Spanish squad is packed with quality all the way through and has an unshakable belief in its ability. Expect Spain to dominate the midfield with Xavi and Iniesta and for Fernando Torres to strike the only goal of the game.
• Spain defeats Brazil